What if BJP does not cross 180-200 mark?


Although the polling is over in the country that was spread over more than a month, the frenzy for the results has not come to an end. All the TV channels and other media platforms are busy giving out their verdicts before the results are announced on May 16th. Earlier it was the pre-poll opinions and now the Exit polls are trying to predict their figures the political parties will get at the end of the Lok Sabha Elections when the results come.

The BJP-led alliance is expected to win a comfortable majority, crossing the 272 mark (needed to command a majority in the Lok Sabha), according to the majority of the polls. While Congress has dismissed the exit polls, It is beleieved that the party will be reduced to a record low this time, hardly managing to get a triple digit figure. Sensing the dip in the exit polls, Sonia Gandhi is also said to have reached to the like-minded political parties to keep Narendra Modi out of power. Plus the possibility of allying with the Third Front as had been talked about by some of the Congress leaders.

As the exit polls are predicting a major sweep by BJP led NDA allaince, we should not forget that in the past the exit polls have not been always accurate. Like in 2009 Lok Sabha Elections, media had predicted the same win for NDA but turned out to be swept away by UPA. However, this time, the anti-incumbency factor might actually prove to be as clear as the exit polls and NDA might get the magic number of 272 to form the government at the Centre. But the question is what if NDA could not get more than 220 seats after the results.

Any number of seats less than 220 will set political analysts once again doing the calculations and BJP of course will again be forced to look out for more alliance parties. Like Siddharth Varadarajan in his article in NDTV writes, When Bihar Chief Minister and Janata Dal (United) leader Nitish Kumar quit the NDA, many analysts assumed the BJP would find it difficult to attract allies as long as Modi was its PM candidate. The experience of the past few months has belied that assumption. Modi was not a constraint for Ramvilas Paswan. The Telugu Desam Party or the small Tamil Nadu and Maharashtra parties that are backing the BJP also did not have any problem with Modi as the BJP’s helmsman.”

In West Bengal, BJP hopes to get 3 to 4 seats on its own as the gaps between BJP and TMC have grown over these months with both Mamata Banerjee and Narendra Modi attacking and abusing each other regularly. So allying with TMC is not predictable so far. Had BJP kept good relations with TMC, even 220 seats would not have been a problem. Modi might also need the support of Jayalalithaa and Naveen Patnaik to form a stable government. But relations with these two leaders have also not been so good that can complicate things for BJP. In the same way, after the alliance with Chandra Babu Naidu’s TDP in Seemandhra, Jagan Reddy will also be not willing to lend his support to Narendra Modi. TRS in Telangana might also have no issues backing Modi if Congress is the second largest party here.

As Siddharth Varadarajan writes, “To become PM on the back of 180 seats and a hostile Mamata, Modi would need Jagan, Jayalalithaa and TRS to win 60 seats between them. If 180-200 seats range represents a danger zone for the BJP, anything beyond that would provide a comfortable platform for Modi. His NDA partners and TDP would likely take the tally up to at least 235. From there, reaching 272 will not be a difficult task.”

Most of the exit polls are showing that it will be difficult for the Congress to get more than a 100 seats, but if it gets seats somewhere between 100-120, it is certainly a danger mark for the BJP then. Remember, we have a history of election results full of surprises.

  • http://nuclearsupremacyforindiaoverus.blogspot.com Satish Chandra


    A couple days ago I posted a comment on outlookindiaDOTcom. A couple hours later I found that there were 4 ‘Dislikes’ on my comment and 0 ‘Likes’. A few minutes later, I found that the number of ‘Dislikes’ had been reduced from 4 to 3; the number of ‘Likes’ was still 0. CIA-RAW, which has kept me under 24-hour surveillance with the U.S. National Security Agency satellites for the past 37 years (see below) had done this with microwave signals from satellites; ordinary users can INCREASE the number of ‘Dislikes’ by pressing the ‘Dislike’ button but there is no way they can DECREASE the number of ‘Dislikes’. CIA-RAW routinely controls the number of hit-counts on my blogs, to take another example and can and does put false numbers, usually a small fraction of the actual number, in the hit counters. Note that falsification of vote counts in Electronic Voting Machines does not require the machines to be defective or physically tampered with; it is done electronically via microwave signals from satellites which leave no trace. CIA-RAW can do a lot more than change vote counts with microwave signals from satellites; they can alter the contents of any webpage at will but they can do a lot more than that also; just as microwaves make cell phones do whatever they do, CIA-RAW can use microwave signals from the U.S. National Security Agency satellites to make any digital equipment do whatever it wants; see IndianAirForcePilotsMurderDOTblogspotDOTcom .

    The opinions and votes of India’s slave population suffering from mass-psychosis (below) do not matter; only nuclear weapons matter — to simultaneously destroy Washington, New York, RAW headquarters, South Block and North Block with a warning that additional U.S. cities will be destroyed, with nuclear warheads already emplaced in them, if there is any retaliation or sign of retaliation. In a letter dated July 27, 1982 to Indira Gandhi as prime minister I referred to an act, by American Jews, that was “the equivalent of an annihilatory nuclear first strike on India”. In her reply dated July 29, 1982 she wrote “Dear Mr. Chandra, I have received your letter dated July 27, 1982 and am passing it on to my Principal Secretary to deal with it. Sincerely, Indira Gandhi”. In December, 1982 I wrote to her “There was sudden, terminal, overwhelming violence against me during a seminar at Harvard University and rather similar occurrences earlier… India can expect sudden, annihilatory violence … with nuclear weapons … against its population … unless it can mount a decisively superior force to stop it”. Following my advice, India’s strategic program, including the Integrated Guided Missile Development Programme and the Centre for Advanced Technology, was started to give India victory in a nuclear war with the United States and because of my influence on her, Indira Gandhi as prime minister was assassinated by CIA-RAW and later when Rajiv Gandhi realized the truth of what I had written to her after the American invasion of Iraq which was the first Gulf War, he was also assassinated by CIA-RAW. In the past few years, I have had India’s nuclear forces emplace nuclear warheads in Washington, New York and other U.S. cities and India is now in a position to destroy the United States without being destroyed. In fact, India is in a position now to destroy the United States without itself suffering a single casualty by triggering its nuclear warheads emplaced in Washington and New York with a warning that additional U.S. cities will be similarly destroyed if there is any retaliation or sign of retaliation.

    This is what I said when asked if India is just a pawn. “Yes, it is a pawn, a slave, a society suffering from mass-psychosis. Despite the recent revelations about M. K. Gandhi being a homosexual who reveled in his “slavery with a vengeance” to the white man, who engaged in a fake ‘freedom struggle” with the British managed by the Intelligence Bureau, the entire Indian government went to his memorial on his death anniversary this January 30, 2012 to pay tribute. India is a very sick society. (I had urged that all his portraits in government offices, etc. be burned). … By saying that India is suffering from mass-psychosis, I am being generous and kind of giving it the excuse of being ill (of the several hats I wear, I am also a mental health professional) but a country of 1.2 billion people being so terrified of much smaller numbers of people from half way around the world cannot really be excused. … ” (see RAWsTraffickingOfIndianChildrenDOTblogspotDOTcom ).

    I have said Sikhs are traitors to India and played a major role in the British killing over 10 million Indians in just the ten years after 1857 — their primary loyalty is to the Anglo-Americans, not India: ‘Source of Manmohan Singh‘s ‘Deep Love‘ for Bush‘ : SourceOfManmohanSinghsDeepLoveForBushDOTblogspotDOTcom — and that is why no Sikh was made army chief until recently when J. J. Singh and Bikram Singh — who just returned after getting a military medal from the Americans without getting the requisite permission from the Indian government — were made army chiefs in quick succession thanks to a Sikh traitor as prime minister given this post by a white Christian woman and now another Sikh, Dalbir Singh Suhag, is due to be made army chief; the head of India’s nuclear forces is already a Sikh. The Defence Minister is a Christian as was his predecessor and the previous head of India’s nuclear forces was a Christian — all of them by definition loyal to the Anglo-Americans. Overt colonial rule over India is almost complete; Indians are too stupid and lethargic to do anything about it. My concern here is not religion (Sikhism is a branch of Hinduism like Buddhism and Jainism) but national security because of their being loyal to foreign enemies (possibly because both Sikhs and Christians are low-caste Hindu converts). This is also the reason India’s nuclear forces have so far failed to obey me to trigger India’s nuclear warheads emplaced in Washington and New York with a warning that additional U.S. cities will be similarly destroyed if there is any retaliation or sign of retaliation, which will immediately make India the supreme military and economic power in the world.

    Satish Chandra

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